labradore

"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Friday, September 12, 2014

Confederation, cartographed

A little first for this corner: an interactive map.

This map shows the results of the second-round referendum of July 22, 1948, in which the people of Newfoundland and Labrador chose between Confederation and Responsible Government. This was only the third time that the people of Labrador had the right to vote; the first two being to choose a delegate to the National Convention in 1946, and the second, the first round of the referendum in June 1948.

Each symbol shows a community location and the result on July 22nd. The two green squares are the only two places in Labrador which voted for Responsible Government. The squares in various shades of red voted for Confederation, with the Confederate side taking between 50 and 99% of the vote. The four shades, in ascending depth of colour, represent 12.5% brackets. The yellow stars are communities where 100% of the vote was to join Canada.

Click on a symbol to see the community name (as it was given in the referendum return) and detailed numerical result.


Through some historical accident or another, the poll-by-poll results of the referendum in the electoral district of Labrador survived. In most of Newfoundland, they did not. The figures shown here are drawn from the table published in the December 1984 edition of Them Days. Any errors or omissions are theirs, not mine.

If a community symbol is not in the right location, leave a correction notice in the comments.

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Thursday, September 11, 2014

Endorsemap (II)

(Updated from here.)

Now that he's no longer Speaker, Ross Wiseman's piece of turf is now shaded a Paul Davis shade of green. And the Hon. Member for Whocares—I'mouttahere, Ray Hunter, is finally on the map for Davis' neighbour and leadership rival Steve Kent.

Outgoing Interim Interim Premier Marshall is the only remaining neutral grey, unless Interim Speaker Wade Verge walks back his Davis endorsement before Saturday. (Click to enlarge.)

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Friday, September 05, 2014

The slow-motion election

This chart outlines the changes in the composition of the House of Assembly since the October 11, 2011 provincial general election. (Click to enlarge.)


Each "jump" represents a change. Chronologically, from left to right, they are:
  1. September 13, 2012: Tom Osborne leaves the PC caucus.
  2. April 8, 2013: Yvonne Jones resigns (Cartwright–L’anse au Clair).
  3. June 25, 2013: Lisa Dempster wins by-election.
  4. August 29, 2013: Tom Osborne joins the Liberal caucus.
  5. October 2, 2013: Jerome Kennedy resigns (Carbonear–Harbour Grace).
  6. October 29, 2013: Chris Mitchelmore and Dale Kirby leave the NDP caucus.
  7. November 26, 2013: Sam Slade wins by-election.
  8. January 20, 2014: Paul Lane crosses the floor to the Liberal caucus.
  9. February 4, 2014: Chris Mitchelmore and Dale Kirby join the Liberal caucus.
  10. February 28, 2014: Kathy Dunderdale resigns (Virginia Waters).
  11. May 5, 2014: Cathy Bennett wins by-election.
  12. June 2, 2014: Joan Shea resigns (St. George’s–Stephenville East).
  13. August 26, 2014: Scott Reid wins by-election.
  14. September 5, 2014: Charlene Johnson resigns (Trinity–Bay de Verde).
  15. September ??, 2014: Terry French to resign (Conception Bay South).
Missing from image: Tom Marshall's resignation (Humber East).

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Thursday, September 04, 2014

Here

Page 91 of the current edition of Atlantic Business Magazine features an ad by the Newfoundland and Labrador department of Natural Resources, touting the province's iron nickel copper zinc gold silver uranium antimony and more...
 


... over the backdrop of the world-famous ore fields and mines on either side of the Narrows of St. John's harbour.

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Private to Steve Kent



From the proceedings of the Bow-Wow Parliament on November 18, 2002, here's then-Opposition Leader Ed Byrne questioning then-Premier Roger Grimes. The raw Hansard has been subjected to light editing and added emphasis.

* * *

MR. E. BYRNE: I am not sure what planet this man is living on, Mr. Speaker. The fact of the matter is, for seven consecutive quarters, this Premier has lagged behind between sixteen and twenty-one points to (inaudible) the Opposition in leadership polls. Liberal sources themselves have said that if he does not hit 35 per cent, we are going to have to take a second look.

Mr. Speaker, let me ask him this question: Isn't it a fact that the only reason that this ad campaign is going on is simply because the Premier is lagging behind in the polls? Isn't that the reason that you are spending $25,000 and $30,000 a week of the public's money to pump up your own political image?

PREMIER GRIMES: What we are proud of, and what we are very aware of, is that for seven consecutive quarters when the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have been asked by independent pollsters: are they satisfied with what the government is doing in Newfoundland and Labrador, do they like the kinds of initiatives that we have putting forward, are they pleased with the government in what they have been doing, because the government is concerned for Newfoundland and Labrador, every single time anywhere from 52 per cent to 60 per cent of the people have said they are satisfied with what the government is doing, Mr. Speaker.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!

PREMIER GRIMES: The real reason the Opposition does not like this kind of approach is because the same pollsters are telling them — and they know it — that any time that happens on a repeated basis, the government gets re-elected because the people are satisfied with the government, Mr. Speaker.


MR. E. BYRNE: Mr. Speaker, let me ask him this question: Isn't it a fact that the only reason that this ad campaign is going on is simply because the Premier is lagging behind in the polls? Isn't that the reason that you are spending $25,000 and $30,000 a week of the public's money to pump up your own political image?

PREMIER GRIMES: What we are proud of, and what we are very aware of, is that for seven consecutive quarters when the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have been asked by independent pollsters: are they satisfied with what the government is doing in Newfoundland and Labrador, do they like the kinds of initiatives that we have putting forward, are they pleased with the government in what they have been doing, because the government is concerned for Newfoundland and Labrador, every single time anywhere from 52 per cent to 60 per cent of the people have said they are satisfied with what the government is doing, Mr. Speaker.

 

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Wednesday, September 03, 2014

Extinction level events

Earlier today, CRA came out with its quarterly report from its August fieldwork.

(If you are a Newfoundland and Labrador Progressive Conservative, this is a good time to close your eyes, stick your thumbs in your ears, and hum loudly.)

Here's what the notional seat forecast looks like, based on today's CRA numbers, if they were the popular-vote numbers in a provincial general election. (Click to enlarge.)

Dark red indicate Liberal holds, paler reds are projected Liberal pickups, and oranges are notional NDP holds. The only small splotch of blue is Humber East, which is, presumably, about to be vacated by Interim Interim Premier Marshall after the PCs pick their new leader in mid-September.

The only other faint hope for the Tory cause, on those popular-support numbers, are the dozen "toss-up" seats on which two projection models can't quite come to agree on the notional winner. The PCs are notionally in contention in ten of those districts. However, on the simplest forecast model, the "uniform swing", the Tories would lose all ten.

(Private to NL PC caucus staff: do you still think the games your guys played with House of Assembly opposition caucus funding was a brilliant idea?)

The NDP would notionally retain three of its 2011 seats, and be in contention in two or three others. However, one of those three holds would be St. John's North, where the formerly-NDP incumbent, Dale Kirby, is now a member of the Liberal caucus. While the NDP is well off the highs it witnessed during its polling surge in 2012-2013, at 15% it is still actually at historically high levels in an NL provincial vote-intent question. Between 1998 and 2011, the Orange team had only ever cracked the 15% mark in a CRA (or any other) poll once, in May 2004, in the wake of widespread unrest in the public sector.

The usual seat-forecasting caveats apply: the notional model does not take into account changes in affiliation since the last election, namely:
  • In St. John's South, former PC Tom Osborne, after an interlude in self-imposed exile as an Independent member, is now a Liberal.
  • In Mount Pearl South, former PC Paul Lane has also donned a red uniform.
  • In St. John's North,  former NDP MHA Dale Kirby will re-offer, this time as the newly-nominated Liberal candidate in the 2015 (14? 16?) general election.
  • In The Straits and White Bay North, former NDP MHA Chris Mitchelmore is now the Liberal MHA and nominee in that district.
  • In Virginia Waters, Liberal Cathy Bennett now holds the seat following the by-election to succeed former Premier Dunderdale.
  • In Carbonear–Harbour Grace, Liberal Sam Slade carried in last fall's by-election what was in 2011 the second-Toriest district in the province.
  • In Cartwright–L'anse au Clair, a purely academic change saw Liberal Lisa Dempster succeed Liberal Yvonne Jones.
  • In St. George's–Stephenville East, Joan Shea's departure resulted in last week's by-election pickup by Liberal Scott Reid.
As with all poll projections, the overall seat-count result tends to be more accurate than the district-by-district count when the models are tested post-election. The errors in individual district forecasts tend to cancel one another out in the overall composition of the notionally-projected legislature.

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Endorsemap

The PC leadership contest endorsements, cleverly colour-coded and mapped. (Click to enlarge.)


Districts shaded in green are where the sitting PC MHA has endorsed Paul Davis; brown are Steve Kent supporters; blue are Ottenheimer's Ottenhomeys. The latter class includes, until Friday, Charlene Johnson in Trinity–Bay de Verde.

Dark green and dark brown are Davis and Kent themselves. Pink and pale orange are held by opposition MHAs or MHA-elect, as the case may be.

The three grey districts are where the PC incumbent has not made any public endorsement, or is officially neutral. The Interim-Interim Premier, and the Speaker of the House, you can understand.

What's up with Ray Hunter?

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Seven years later, seven years-thirty in Newfoundland

In 2007, Glorious Leader released Our Dear Energy Plan, which — after calling for the development of the Lower Churchill, starting with the sanctioning of Gull Island in 2009, to be in service in 2015 — made the following pledges:
A number of other technologies, including gas cogeneration (using natural gas from offshore or, on a smaller scale, methane recovered from landfills), cogeneration, biomass (wood), peat, tidal, small-scale wind, solar power and micro-hydro, might be able to contribute to our electrical supply. Some of these, notably cogeneration, are mature alternatives. Others are still in the developmental stages. Long-term business cases are required to support their use and they are highly sensitive to the sale price of the electricity. Together, they offer the potential to supplement our renewable electricity portfolio.

Some homeowners and small business operators have requested permission to install small generation units to produce power for themselves with the ability to feed some back into the system when they can produce more than they need. The Provincial Government will ensure that regulatory support is in place for customers who wish to develop these alternatives themselves on a small scale, through a net metering policy. NLH and Newfoundland Power have told Government they will make a joint proposal to the PUB to implement net metering for small-scale renewable energy sources, with due regard for safety, the environment and the community.
Only seven years later, the Williams Dunderdale Marshall Coleman Marshall Whoever Government is finally thinking about maybe following through.

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Tuesday, September 02, 2014

Sigh.

On August 29th, the Office of the Information and Privacy Commissioner submitted a supplemental submission to the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Review Committee (PARCNL).

The Commitee requested that presenters or submitters provide their submissions in PDF format. For some reason, while the OIPC's original submission was a perfectly-searchable text-based PDF, their supplemental was not. It is a graphical PDF whose text cannot be read by machines, including by machines which assist human beings with sensory impairments to read digital content.

Here is the OIPC's supplemental submission with OCR (optical character recognition) applied to the page images, in order to make them legible and useable for a broader class of end users. In 2014, it should not be necessary for a third party to have to do this.


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Sunday, August 31, 2014

Comparative contests


If you are still wondering why Progressive Conservative members and prominent operatives, having spent the latter half of 2013 ridiculing the provincial Liberals' leadership process, are now rushing to adopt it — for the 2016 leadership race — wonder no longer.

This map expresses the turnout at the PC leadership delegate selection meetings (DSM) held over the summer as a percentage of the total vote in the Liberals' "virtual" leadership vote in each district. (Click to enlarge.)

In only three districts — Kilbride, Lewisporte, and Lake Melville — did the PC leadership turnout exceed half that of the Liberal leadership vote. In twenty-six districts, more than half the province, the PC leadership turnout was 15% or less that of the Liberal leadership turnout in the same district. This "enthusiasm gap" is especially pronounced outside metro St. John's and "around the [Conception] Bay". However, in both Tory-held districts where the sitting MHA is a leadership candidate — Paul Davis' Topsail and Steve Kent's Mount Pearl North — the PC leadership turnout was less than 10% that of the Liberal vote last year.

The low turnout in Davis and Kent's back yards may be attributable, in part, to the fact that they were among the first districts to hold DSMs. The other metro-area district with particularly poor turnout, St. John's Centre, also held its DSM during the first week of meetings.

There is some evidence that either enthusiasm among PC supporters, or ability of the camps to get their supporters out to the bingo halls, or both, increased, if modestly, as the campaign went on. This is what happens when you sort the DSMs chronologically, and group them by week (starting on Mondays) of the campaign period. Where multiple PC district associations held their DSMs on the same day, the districts are sub-sorted alphabetically. Again, the PC leadership turnout is expressed as a percentage of the comparable figure for the 2013 Liberal leadership contest. (Click to enlarge.)



And here's the PC turnout expressed as a percentage of all eligible voters in the district (per the 2011 election return), which yields a clearer upward trend as the campaign progressed:

Expressed this way, the highest PC leadership turnout was in Lake Melville, at 3.4%.

The lowest turnout in last year's Liberal leadership? Lewisporte. 4.0%.

H/T to @TelegramJames for compiling the PC DSM statistics:


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Friday, August 29, 2014

Cognitive dissonance


Saturday, August 16, 2014

Michael Crummey, condensed

Let me save you a click:


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William’s Harbour in southern Labrador

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