Downward is upward

The PC MHA for Terra Nova is ever so pleased with the latest CRA poll

Our polling #s didn't go down overnight and they won't go up overnight but I am pleased to see an upward trend. Very positive result! #CRA
— Sandy Collins (@SandyRCollins) March 6, 2014

An uptick in the PC's popular support, within the margin of error of CRA's methodology, and one point less of support than the Abacus poll taken in the immediate aftermath of former Premier Dunderdale's resignation, might be the silver lining that the Tories are looking for. But the trend — the real trend — is not all that rosey.

Here is the four-poll rolling average of published popular opinion surveys over the past four years (click to enlarge):

Maybe the slight uptick in PC fortunes in the past half-year or so means something, and something that will last.

Or maybe it's just the third dead-cat bounce that the party's fortunes have seen since Dear Leader first noticed that his support was starting to soften in 2010.